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Friday, September 30, 2011

National Weather Service? Who dat?

Folks, I'm not going to spend a lot of time on this.

You saw my 20.24' forecast for the crest of the Susquehanna River at Wilkes-Barre, provided about 4 hours before it actually happened earlier today. The National Weather Service predicted it would crest at 22.6'.

The actual crest was 19.75'. So, I came within 2.4% of the actual crest...about ~6 inches off.

The NWS? They got within 14.4% of the actual number. Like 34.2 inches off.  Almost 3 feet!

Who got spanked? The National Weather Service. The supposed experts.

Data from USGS website for Wilkes-Barre gauge - 9/30/2011

Imagine if everyone along the north branch of the Susquehanna had an extra 4 to 6 hours to move their belongings to higher ground when Tropical Storm Lee dumped its load. How much more could have been spared being pitched into the streets? Of course, the broken USGS gauge at Wilkes-Barre is being blamed.
Sorry, but it is blatantly obvious to me that the NWS and the LCFPA do not know how to interpret upstream data and extrapolate the same to predict flooding @ Wilkes-Barre. And these people are the "experts" the media runs to for information?


The next time there's a potential flooding event along the north branch of the Susquehanna...check in here first.

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